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UK Officials Said AI Would Add £400 Billion to the Economy. That Figure Mainly Came From Google
The UK Government has acknowledged that its widely used claim that AI could add £400 billion to the economy by 2030 came from a Google-commissioned report, rather than its own projections. The admission matters because government bodies and ministers cited that figure for nearly two years, while the Government’s central estimate is far lower and officials say it is highly uncertain.
AI minister Kanishka Narayan said the Government estimates AI adoption and data investment could add £55 billion to £140 billion by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion. The report behind the £400 billion figure was produced in 2023 by consultancy Public First, now called PF Global; its economics chief attributed the gap partly to slower AI uptake than the report assumed. The Government had the lower estimate by at least November 2025, but agencies continued using the older figure, prompting calls for clearer communication and more realistic claims about AI’s economic benefits.
In short
- Government estimate centres on £120 billion by 2030.
- The £400 billion claim came from a Google-commissioned report.
- MPs say public claims about AI benefits need greater transparency.
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The case for
The £400 billion figure came from a commissioned report that modelled the potential gains if AI adoption spread quickly, and ambitious estimates can help make the case for investment and preparation. The gap with the Government’s lower estimate may reflect different assumptions about uptake and timing, rather than evidence that AI cannot deliver substantial benefits.
The case against
Government bodies should distinguish clearly between an externally commissioned scenario and their own central forecast, especially when the figures are used to describe public policy. Continuing to cite £400 billion after officials had a much lower estimate risks giving the public and decision-makers an overstated impression of likely gains, so the Government should correct the record and explain the uncertainty.
Explained simply
Artificial intelligence (AI) refers to computer systems that can carry out tasks such as analysing information or generating text. Governments are considering how businesses might use these tools and whether wider use could increase productivity and economic output.
The UK Government has cited estimates of AI’s potential contribution to the economy, while its own estimate puts the possible increase by 2030 in a lower range. The £400 billion estimate was produced by Public First, a consultancy, for Google; Google is a technology company that develops AI tools. The figures matter because they shape public expectations and inform debate about the scale of AI’s economic benefits.
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