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Andy Burnham’s high-stakes gamble on Nigel Farage is about to blow up in his face
The article argues that Andy Burnham is taking a political risk by giving little attention to Reform UK while pursuing policies and positions that may alienate some voters. It suggests he believes Labour can hold off Nigel Farage’s party through support from the wider Left and tactical voting, but warns that this confidence could backfire.
It cites a More in Common analysis from September that projected Reform could take 95 seats from Labour, and says Burnham won the Leave-voting Makerfield seat by 9,231 votes. The article also criticises Labour’s expected agreement to follow some EU food standards, its delay in increasing defence spending and its decision to drop proposed longer settlement waits for some migrant care workers. A later passage about actor Kristin Scott Thomas is unrelated to the political argument.
In short
- The article says Burnham is underestimating Reform UK.
- A cited analysis projected Reform could take 95 Labour seats.
- Labour’s EU, defence and migration choices may carry political risks.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Burnham may reasonably judge that Reform’s appeal is limited and that Labour can retain voters through a broader coalition, including tactical support from parties to its left. The projected seat losses are uncertain, while his Makerfield victory suggests he can win in a Leave-voting area; prioritising other policies may therefore be a defensible choice rather than a gamble.
The case against
Reform’s potential to take Labour seats, including in Leave-voting areas, gives Burnham reason to treat it as a serious threat rather than rely on tactical voting and support from the wider Left. Critics can argue that positions on EU food standards, defence spending and migrant settlement risk alienating voters concerned about sovereignty, security and immigration, making the strategy vulnerable if Reform’s support grows.