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Kalshi says midterm favourites led in 479 of 487 races as trading topped $2.5bn
Kalshi says election market favourites won or were leading in 479 of 487 races in the 2026 US midterms, presenting the result as evidence that prediction markets can forecast elections accurately. The company also claimed its forecasts outperformed several polling models, while trading on election outcomes grew substantially.
Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in election-market trading, up from $1.3 billion during the 2024 cycle. Its figures use market prices from 5pm ET on election night, before votes were counted; the reported success rate was 99 per cent for House races and 97 per cent for Senate and gubernatorial contests. The Texas Senate race drew nearly $198 million, and the company says hundreds of millions have already been traded on 2028 nomination markets.
In short
- Kalshi says favourites led or won in 479 of 487 midterm races.
- Election-market trading exceeded $2.5 billion.
- The figures are Kalshi’s own analysis of market prices.
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The case for
Supporters argue that market prices aggregate many participants’ information and incentives, offering a useful real-time forecast that can complement polls. The reported election-night results and growth in trading suggest these markets may provide timely signals about public expectations, while giving people a way to trade on outcomes they believe are mispriced.
The case against
Sceptics argue that a high success rate measured just before counting does not by itself show that markets consistently outperform polls or other forecasts; the result depends on which races and threshold count as correct, and Kalshi’s figures are company-reported. They also question whether a platform with substantial financial stakes should be treated as a neutral measure of public expectations, and whether the growth of political betting raises concerns about incentives and market integrity.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Kalshi declares 98 percent combined market success rate for midterm race favorites beating traditional polls… as $2.5 billion total traded”.