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Rheinmetall shares plunge 17% after outlook cut as military contracts stall
Rheinmetall cut its 2026 sales and profit-margin forecasts after delays to military vehicle contracts and ammunition deliveries. Its shares fell more than 17% in early trading, as the revised outlook marked a second guidance cut since August and added to concerns about the pace of contract delivery.
The company now expects sales of about €13.2 billion, down from a previous range of €13.7 billion to €14.2 billion, and an operating margin of around 18.5%, compared with 19%. Delays to Germany’s Arminius Boxer vehicle programme and setbacks in artillery ammunition testing contributed to the change; the Arminius contract is now expected to be commissioned next year. Shares are down about 46% this year, following average annual gains of 119% over the previous four years.
In short
- Rheinmetall lowered its 2026 sales and margin forecasts.
- Delays to vehicle and ammunition programmes drove the cuts.
- Shares dropped over 17% and are down about 46% this year.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A sharp reassessment of Rheinmetall’s shares is defensible because repeated forecast cuts and delays in major programmes raise questions about the company’s ability to turn strong defence demand into timely sales and profits. Investors may reasonably prefer to wait for clearer delivery progress before valuing the business on expectations built during its exceptional recent share-price gains.
The case against
The delays may reflect the complexity of commissioning military vehicles and testing ammunition, rather than a lasting weakness in demand or Rheinmetall’s business. Investors taking a longer view could see the lower forecasts and steep share-price fall as an overreaction to timing setbacks, while contracts are still expected to proceed and delivery next year could support a recovery.
Explained simply
Rheinmetall is a German defence company that makes military vehicles, weapons and ammunition. Its business depends in part on governments placing large orders and the company delivering them to agreed schedules.
Germany’s Boxer programme is a project to supply armed forces with armoured vehicles. Delays to that programme and to ammunition deliveries can affect when Rheinmetall records sales and how much profit it makes. Investors watch the company’s forecasts because they indicate how quickly defence orders are turning into delivered equipment and income.