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Red Florida’s Blue Silver Linings
Republican Byron Donalds won Florida’s governor’s race, but Democrats made gains across the state, including in areas that had backed Donald Trump in 2024. The results suggest Florida did not turn blue, yet the broad shift towards Democrats and victories in redrawn congressional districts offer the party a foundation to build on.
An Associated Press analysis found movement to the left in almost every Florida county, with the strongest shifts in Miami, Tampa Bay and Orlando. Democrat David Jolly won Miami-Dade, Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, while Democrats flipped control of Hillsborough County’s commission and were expected to end Republican supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Donalds raised more than $125 million for the governor’s race, compared with about $22 million for Jolly.
In short
- Byron Donalds won the governor’s race, but Democrats gained ground across Florida.
- Democrats flipped Hillsborough County’s commission and made legislative gains.
- Jolly’s campaign raised about $22 million, against Donalds’s more than $125 million.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Democrats can point to leftward shifts across nearly every county and wins in key urban and suburban areas as evidence that Florida’s political map may be becoming more competitive. Flips in local and congressional contests, alongside expected losses of Republican legislative supermajorities, could give the party a stronger base for future campaigns, even though Donalds won the governorship.
The case against
Republicans can argue that Donalds’ victory shows Florida remains a red state, and that local gains do not amount to a statewide realignment. The results also need to be weighed against the large spending gap between the candidates and the limits of drawing long-term conclusions from one election; shifts towards Democrats may not persist or translate into future statewide wins.
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