Analysis: China’s quarterly CO2 falls 3% in largest drop since Covid

China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the largest quarterly drop since the 2022 Covid lockdowns. The decline extends a pattern of flat or falling emissions that began in March 2024, and leaves emissions an estimated 0.5% lower so far this year.

Coal use fell 3% and oil use 4% in the quarter, with lower coal-fired power generation, reduced transport fuel use and slower growth in coal-based chemicals contributing to the drop. Wind, solar and nuclear power produced an additional 110 terawatt hours, more than twice the increase in electricity demand; meanwhile, electric vehicles reached 67% of passenger car sales and 50% of heavy truck sales in September. Future emissions depend on energy demand, clean-power growth, grid access for renewables and the government’s response to slower economic growth.