Science news and discussion on TalkFuse.
‘Simply staggering’: Rapidly developing ‘super El Niño’ on track to peak in December
El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are intensifying rapidly and are expected to peak in December, potentially making this one of the strongest such events in at least a millennium. The event releases ocean heat into the atmosphere, temporarily raising global temperatures and influencing weather around the world.
Fourteen climate models project a peak Niño3.4 temperature anomaly of about 4C, more than 1C above the previous record in 2015-16. Its largest effect on global temperatures is expected in 2027: the forecast is about 1.74C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96% chance that 2027 will be the warmest year on record; greenhouse gas emissions remain the main driver of long-term warming.
In short
- El Niño could peak at about 4C above average in December.
- Its strongest global temperature effect is expected in 2027.
- There is a 96% chance 2027 will set a temperature record.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The forecast points to an unusually strong El Niño that could push global temperatures to new records and intensify disruptive weather, making swift emissions cuts and preparation for climate impacts more urgent. Even though El Niño is a natural cycle, its effects are unfolding against a backdrop of human-driven warming, so advocates argue that reducing emissions can limit the longer-term risks.
The case against
El Niño is a natural, temporary climate cycle, and a record year driven partly by its short-term effects should not be treated as proof that any single event was caused by climate change. A thoughtful response should distinguish this variability from the long-term warming trend, communicate forecast uncertainty clearly and focus on practical adaptation as well as emissions policy.
Explained simply
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern in which unusually warm water spreads across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It can shift rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, bringing different risks such as drought or flooding, depending on the place.
The Pacific Ocean normally stores heat, but during El Niño some of that heat moves into the atmosphere. This can raise the world’s average temperature for a time, on top of the longer-term warming caused mainly by greenhouse gas emissions.
Scientists track El Niño using sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific and compare forecasts from climate models. Its effects vary around the world, and the temporary boost to global temperatures does not explain the underlying rise in temperatures over decades.