Nottingham Forest’s historic goal drought at home is part of longstanding problem

Nottingham Forest have failed to score in their first four Premier League home matches this season, an unusually poor run that leaves them at risk of setting a new top-flight record. The drought reflects a longstanding weakness in their home attack, rather than a problem that began with manager Oliver Glasner, and Manchester City visit the City Ground on Saturday.

Forest have taken 62 league shots at home, worth 3.58 expected goals, but only two were classed as big chances; more than two-thirds had a conversion probability of 6% or less. Over half their attempts came from outside the penalty area, while their home passing and crossing accuracy into the box have both fallen below last season’s already-low levels. They have put only nine league shots on target, and have also drawn a blank in a home cup match, leaving them with 70 home attempts in all competitions without a goal.