2026 ‘most likely’ to be second-hottest year on record says EU monitor

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service says 2026 is most likely to be the second-warmest year in records, behind 2024. Its forecast also puts the year virtually certain to average more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, adding to evidence of sustained global warming.

Using data through October, Copernicus estimates an 80% chance that 2026 ranks second and a 20% chance it ties or surpasses 2024. October was the warmest on record for that month, at 1.75°C above the pre-industrial average; intensifying El Niño conditions are adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activity. The four-year average for 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed 1.5°C.