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Moderna raises 2026 outlook as CEO says newer vaccines are gaining traction
Moderna reported third-quarter revenue and earnings above analyst expectations and raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 15% to 25%, from guidance of up to 10%. The company said newer products and broader international sales helped drive the results, as it seeks to diversify beyond its established Covid vaccine business.
Revenue rose 29% to $1.31 billion, including $780 million in the US and $533 million internationally. Moderna recorded net income of $162 million, or 38 cents per share, compared with a $200 million loss a year earlier. Its next-generation Covid vaccine is contributing for a full year, while the recently approved flu shot is expected to have a limited US launch in 2026; investors are also watching its experimental cancer vaccine with Merck.
In short
- Moderna lifted its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 15% to 25%.
- Third-quarter revenue rose 29% to $1.31 billion.
- Newer vaccines and international sales helped boost results.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The results suggest Moderna is making progress diversifying beyond its established Covid vaccine business, with newer products and international sales contributing to growth. Raising its outlook may reflect a stronger commercial position and give the company more scope to invest in vaccines for flu and other diseases.
The case against
One strong quarter and a higher forecast do not establish that this growth will last; the business remains exposed to Covid vaccine demand, while the flu shot’s 2026 launch is expected to be limited. Investors may reasonably question whether newer products can generate sustained sales and justify the investment before experimental candidates, including the cancer vaccine, prove their value.
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