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Could Luka Doncic average 40 points for season? ‘You never know’
Luka Dončić’s explosive start to the 2026-27 NBA season has raised the possibility that he could average 40 points a game, a mark reached by only Wilt Chamberlain. Dončić says the season is still young and that winning matters most to him.
He has scored 361 points in his first nine games, including a season-high 53 against Portland, and is averaging 40.1 points, the league’s best figure. Chamberlain averaged 50.4 in 1961-62 and 44.8 in 1962-63; Michael Jordan’s 37.1 in 1986-87 is the next-highest average by another player. Dončić’s career best is 33.9, and he was listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against Detroit with lower-back tightness.
In short
- Dončić is averaging 40.1 points after nine games.
- Only Wilt Chamberlain has averaged 40 in a season.
- Dončić says winning matters more than individual records.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Dončić’s first nine games show that averaging 40 is at least a plausible possibility: his scoring pace matches that threshold, and his ability to produce exceptionally high totals gives him room to sustain it. A season at that level would be a remarkable individual achievement, provided he stays healthy and the team’s needs allow him to keep taking on a large scoring role.
The case against
Nine games are too small a sample to make a 40-point season average likely; fatigue, defensive adjustments, injuries and ordinary variation can all lower a player’s scoring pace over a full season. Dončić’s career best is 33.9, and his own emphasis on winning suggests that team success, rather than maintaining a historic individual average, would guide his choices.
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