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Farage fury after poll puts Reform eight points behind Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives
A new poll puts Reform UK on 18 per cent, eight points behind the Conservatives, giving Kemi Badenoch’s party a boost as it seeks to regain ground. Nigel Farage disputed the result, calling the polling dishonest, while the pollster defended it and said its findings broadly match trends in other surveys.
Labour leads on 31 per cent, with the Conservatives on 26 per cent. The poll surveyed 5,253 adults between 29 October and 2 November and asked about a general election; Lord Ashcroft noted that this differs from asking about local elections. Reform has also faced scrutiny over a £5 million donation and undercover journalistic investigations, while Badenoch has recently made a high-profile pledge to cut inheritance tax.
In short
- Reform trails the Conservatives by eight points in a new poll.
- Labour leads with 31 per cent, ahead of the Tories on 26 per cent.
- Farage challenged the poll; its author defended the findings.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The poll offers the Conservatives evidence that they may be recovering support, and its large sample and similarity to other surveys give reason to take the result seriously. A general-election question also provides a useful measure of national party support, even if it does not predict local-election results.
The case against
Farage can reasonably question whether this poll captures Reform’s support accurately, particularly because survey methods and the distinction between general and local elections affect what the figures measure. A single poll is only a snapshot, so it should not be treated as conclusive evidence that the Conservatives have moved decisively ahead.
Explained simply
Reform UK is a right-wing political party led by Nigel Farage, while the Conservatives are one of Britain’s long-established parties, led by Kemi Badenoch. Both compete for voters who want a change from the current Labour government, which is led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Opinion polls ask people how they would vote if an election were held, but they are estimates rather than election results. The wording of the question matters: views on a general election can differ from views on local elections, where people choose councillors or mayors.
The parties’ support matters because it can shape their influence in Parliament and their prospects at future elections. Reform has also faced questions over a large donation and undercover investigations, while Badenoch has drawn attention with a pledge on inheritance tax.