Scientists predict 2026 hottest year on record as climate talks begin

Scientists say 2026 is on course to become the hottest year on record, as climate change and El Niño combine to push global temperatures higher. The forecast comes as world leaders meet in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31, where governments face the challenge of cutting emissions while adapting to increasingly severe weather.

Berkeley Earth puts the chance of a new annual record at 95%, surpassing the previous record set in 2024; the World Meteorological Organization more cautiously expects 2026 to rank among the four warmest years. It says a powerful El Niño is likely to keep temperatures elevated into 2027. Greenhouse gases, mainly from fossil fuel use, have trapped more heat, most of which has gone into the oceans; El Niño releases some of that stored heat, adding to the warming. The world is currently on track for 2.8°C of warming by the end of the century compared with pre-industrial levels.