Trump loses at the ballot box, but he remains powerful (and unpredictable) in foreign policy

Donald Trump’s Republicans have lost the midterm elections, leaving him a lame-duck president, but he retains considerable power over US foreign policy. The article argues that his next moves are hard to predict: he could pursue a peace agreement to shape his legacy, escalate an existing conflict or turn to other priorities.

Trump has alternated between suggesting a Ukraine deal is near and threatening renewed large-scale operations against Iran. He met Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev but not visiting Ukrainian representatives, while new indirect Ukraine-Russia talks are planned in Abu Dhabi with Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as mediators. Trump is also due to meet Xi Jinping in China and host the G20 summit in Florida; from January, a Democratic majority in both chambers of Congress is expected to constrain him and pursue investigations into his family’s wealth.