Trump is humiliated and angry – and Europe is where he’s free to lash out | Nathalie Tocci

The article argues that European relief at the Democrats’ midterm gains may be misplaced: although the results show that US democracy and opposition to Trump remain robust, they are unlikely to soften his approach to Europe or Ukraine. The author says Trump may instead interpret the losses as a reason to pursue his agenda more forcefully, leaving Europe exposed to further pressure.

The article points to Americans’ rejection of the Iran war as a possible opening for de-escalation in the Middle East, which European leaders could support through Gulf diplomacy. But Trump’s Maga supporters back closer ties with Moscow and reduced support for Kyiv, while his promotion of Stephen Miller signals an approach based on power. The author notes Trump has already insulted European governments, imposed tariffs and threatened Greenland, though US military disengagement from Europe and Nato has so far been limited.