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Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows
Global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to fall slightly in 2026, mainly because high energy prices and disruption to oil supplies linked to the US war on Iran have reduced demand. Researchers say the dip is not evidence of lasting climate progress, as emissions could rise again when energy markets and economies recover.
The Global Carbon Project estimates oil emissions will drop by 1.9% and gas by 0.3%, while coal emissions rise by 0.6%; fossil fuel emissions overall are forecast to fall by 0.4%, after averaging annual growth of 0.9% over the past decade. Despite that decline, total global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to increase by about 1%, as emissions from land use changes, including deforestation and peat fires, rise. Researchers say sustained cuts depend on faster deployment of clean energy.
In short
- Fossil fuel emissions are forecast to fall 0.4% in 2026.
- High prices and supply disruption are driving the decline.
- Total CO₂ emissions are still expected to rise by about 1%.
Explained simply
Fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal—release carbon dioxide when burned. Carbon dioxide traps heat in the atmosphere, and energy use is a major source of the emissions driving climate change.
The Global Carbon Project is a research group that estimates and tracks carbon emissions worldwide. Its figures distinguish emissions from fossil fuels from those caused by land use changes, such as deforestation and peat fires.
A short-term fall in fossil fuel emissions can reflect reduced energy use during disruption or high prices, rather than a lasting shift to cleaner energy. Whether emissions keep falling depends in part on how quickly countries expand low-carbon energy as markets and economies change.
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