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Top bankers set to score record payday with bonus hikes up to 30%: ‘Year of the bank’
Wall Street banks are expected to award substantially larger bonuses in 2026, with some trading and underwriting staff forecast to receive increases of up to 30%. A pay consultancy describes it as a “year of the bank”, citing strong results in equity trading and share issuance; the forecast matters because banks are using pay to compete for sought-after staff.
Johnson Associates expects bonus pools at 15 major US and foreign banks to rise by about 15% on average. Its estimates include increases of 20% to 30% for stock traders and share-underwriting bankers, 15% to 20% for M&A advisers, and 7.5% to 12.5% for fixed-income traders. New York’s total bonus pool reached $49.2 billion last year, while banks are also using promotions and higher pay to retain talent amid competition from private equity and technology firms, including as AI changes staffing needs.
In short
- Bank bonus pools are forecast to rise about 15% on average.
- Some trading and underwriting bonuses could increase by up to 30%.
- Banks face competition for talent from private equity and technology firms.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Larger bonuses can help banks retain experienced staff and compete with private equity and technology firms for people whose expertise drives trading, underwriting and deal-making. If strong results have increased revenue, higher performance-linked pay may reward employees who contributed and help sustain the business that supports wider financial activity.
The case against
Record bonuses can be difficult to justify when they concentrate gains among already highly paid employees, especially if the underlying results are volatile or depend on risks that may only become clear later. Banks could instead direct more of their earnings towards long-term investment, resilience or broader staff rewards, and large payouts may reinforce incentives to prioritise short-term revenue.