Will Polymarket and Kalshi ever lead prediction market surge in UK?

Around $2bn was staked on prediction markets during last week’s US midterm elections, as platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi expand into politics, finance and sport. Their growing US profile, including partnerships with major leagues, raises the prospect of similar activity around British sport, but entering the UK market would mean navigating a different regulatory framework.

In the US, these platforms present themselves as financial exchanges; in the UK, they are more likely to be treated as gambling operators and would need a Gambling Commission licence, alongside other regulatory requirements and costs. Experts say sport sponsorship could offer a route to British audiences, perhaps through US-facing events, but a government consultation on banning unlicensed gambling brands may limit that strategy. The Betting and Gaming Council says prediction-style operators would have to meet the same standards as licensed UK operators.