Prediction markets tied to clinical trials and drug approvals draw lawmakers’ ire

Democratic senators Angela Alsobrooks and Ron Wyden have asked the US Department of Health and Human Services what it is doing to address risks from prediction market bets on clinical trials and drug approvals. They warn such trading could undermine research, affect patients’ decisions to join trials and create incentives for people with access to confidential information to trade.

The senators requested internal HHS communications about staff participation, correspondence with market platforms and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and any assessments of the markets’ effects. Kalshi and Polymarket offer related contracts, though Polymarket’s are on its unregulated international exchange. Kalshi says its safeguards limit trading to late-stage trials after enrolment is complete and verify traders’ identities; it argues similar concerns apply to pharmaceutical shares.