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Branko Milanovic, economist: ‘This defeat for Trump will not have a major impact on US policy toward Asia or Europe’
Economist Branko Milanovic argues that the Democrats’ strong performance in the US midterm elections is unlikely to change American policy towards China, the Middle East or Europe. While the result limits Donald Trump’s power and may reassure Europeans about the US politically, Milanovic expects the broader geopolitical direction to continue.
Milanovic says policy towards China has remained consistent across administrations, pointing to Joe Biden’s continuation of Trump’s approach. He also describes a growing elite whose members earn highly from both work and capital, a pattern he calls “homoploutia”. The article presents his view that traditional globalisation is giving way to a more nationally focused economic order.
In short
- Midterm losses constrain Trump but are unlikely to shift US foreign policy.
- Milanovic expects continuity in policy towards China across presidents.
- “Homoploutia” describes elites with high income from work and capital.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A strong Democratic result can constrain Trump’s room to manoeuvre and signal that voters want checks on his agenda, potentially reassuring allies unsettled by his approach. Even if core policies endure, electoral pressure and divided government may affect the tone, timing or implementation of decisions on China, Europe and the Middle East.
The case against
US foreign policy often reflects durable strategic interests that persist across changes of administration and Congress; Biden’s continuation of Trump’s China approach supports the view that a midterm result is unlikely to redirect policy. Congress can limit some actions, but it may have little influence over major foreign policy choices, so any reassurance to allies could be mainly political rather than a sign of substantive change.
Explained simply
US policy towards China, Europe and the Middle East is shaped by presidents, Congress and long-running strategic interests. Congress can affect budgets, laws and oversight, but presidents have considerable influence over foreign policy, and approaches can carry on across changes of administration.
Branko Milanovic is an economist who studies inequality and globalisation. He uses the term “homoploutia” for a pattern in which some people earn high incomes both from their jobs and from owning assets such as shares or property.
These debates matter to governments and businesses because US decisions can affect trade, security and alliances around the world. They also raise questions about how global economic ties may change as countries give greater attention to domestic priorities.
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