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France backed to edge Morocco as Sutton predicts open England win
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BBC Sport pundit Chris Sutton has given his score predictions for the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals, backing tournament favourites France to see off Morocco and expecting Spain to overcome Belgium. His forecasts are set against those generated by AI (Microsoft Copilot Chat) and the choices of BBC predictor game users, in a running contest that highlights how the knockout stage has produced repeated surprises. The picks matter as a guide to how the last eight might unfold, with four teams due to exit and semi-final places at stake.
In the last-16 round, Sutton got seven of eight ties right, missing only Switzerland's shootout win over Colombia, while AI wrongly tipped Brazil and the USA to progress; predictor users also managed 6/8. Overall, with 96 of 104 matches played, Sutton and AI are level on 61 correct (64%) and readers lead on 68 (71%). For France v Morocco in Boston (Thursday 9 July, 21:00 BST), both Sutton and AI predict 2-1, with Sutton citing Morocco's inconsistency and the injury to forward Ismael Saibari; for Spain v Belgium in Los Angeles (Friday 10 July), he expects Spain's attack to improve, noting Spain are yet to concede and that Belgium have lost midfielder Amadou Onana to injury.
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In short
- Sutton backs favourites France to beat Morocco 2-1.
- He also tips Spain to overcome Belgium.
- Predictor users lead the tipping contest on 71%.
How this story developed
- 4 months ago The coverage now centres on Sutton's France v Morocco call, in which he favours France on their attacking consistency and depth u2014 sharpened by the injury absence of striker Ismael Saibari u2014 reflecting his pre-tournament tip of France as champions, after his seven-from-eight showing in the last 16 left him tied with the AI at 64% and trailing predictor game users on 71%.
- 4 months ago Chris Sutton broadened his BBC Sport quarter-final predictions beyond France v Morocco, backing a 3-0 Spain win over Belgium in Los Angeles and forecasting a goal-laden Norway v England tie in Miami, while sticking with a 2-1 France victory and sitting level with the AI on 61 correct (64%) behind predictor game users on 68 (71%).
Where outlets differ
Left-leaning outlets 1
- World Cup quarter-final predictions: will anyone derail France? Some of our panel believe so u2026The Guardian
Only here: world, quarter, final, predictions, anyone
Centre outlets 1
Only here: backed, edge, morocco, sutton, predicts
Every side used: france
Headline columns compared word for word; nothing in them is AI-written.
Explained simply
Chris Sutton is a former footballer and pundit who writes regular predictions for BBC Sport during major tournaments, including the current World Cup. As part of this, his score forecasts for each round are compared with those produced by an artificial intelligence tool and with the choices made by members of the public using a BBC predictor game, creating an informal contest to see whose picks prove most accurate.
The story concerns the quarter-final stage of the competition, where eight teams have been reduced to the last four remaining ties. Among the sides involved are France, Morocco, Spain and Belgium, all of whom have progressed through the tournament's earlier knockout rounds, some via matches that did not go as widely expected.
This tracking of predictions has become a talking point because the knockout stage has thrown up several surprise results, meaning no forecaster, human or AI, has managed a perfect record. The comparison is used as a light-hearted but structured way of assessing how well pundits, AI and everyday fans can read the form and likely outcomes of the remaining matches.
Coverage · 2 sources
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Originally published by BBC Sport as “Chris Sutton’s World Cup quarter-final predictions”.