Poll puts Talarico two points ahead of Paxton in Texas Senate race
A Fox News poll puts Democrat James Talarico two points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, though the difference is within the poll’s margin of error. The close contest has drawn fresh attention after leaked audio appeared to capture Paxton saying Republican candidates’ numbers fell after a Dallas convention, raising questions about his view of an event promoted by Donald Trump.
The poll surveyed 881 likely Texas voters from 24 to 28 September, before the recording surfaced on 30 September; it found Talarico at 51 per cent and Paxton at 49 per cent, with a margin of error of ±3 points. Talarico’s favourability was 52 per cent positive and 44 per cent negative, while Paxton’s was 40 per cent positive and 58 per cent negative. Paxton’s campaign rejected the report and said its own polling showed him three points ahead; Trump defended the convention, and JD Vance said Republicans would continue supporting Paxton.
- Talarico leads Paxton 51 to 49 in a poll within the margin of error.
- The poll was taken before leaked audio about the Dallas convention surfaced.
- Paxton’s campaign disputes the poll and says its own numbers show him ahead.
New here? Start with this
James Talarico, a Democrat, and Ken Paxton, a Republican, are competing for a Texas Senate seat. The outcome of this race is nationally significant because Senate races determine which party controls the Senate and thus influences national legislative outcomes.
Senate races are closely watched because the party controlling the Senate shapes the legislative agenda and which bills become law. Texas is a large and politically important state, making this particular election outcome consequential for the national balance of power.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The Fox News poll demonstrates a genuinely competitive race with Talarico holding a measurable lead and commanding significantly stronger favourability ratings than Paxton, whose unfavourable rating stands at 58 per cent versus 40 per cent favourable. The leaked audio raises questions about Paxton's commitment to party priorities, and this polling snapshot represents a meaningful opening for Democrats in a state where they have struggled to gain electoral ground.
The case against
The poll represents a statistical tie given the three-point margin of error, and Paxton's campaign's own polling shows him three points ahead—consistent with Texas's fundamental Republican leanings. The leaked audio lacks full context, Trump has defended the convention in question, and party leadership continues backing Paxton, suggesting any controversy is being overblown by opponents seeking to create a narrative of weakness where Republican structural advantages remain intact.
Elections Government Politics World
Read the full article at the source →
Originally published by Daily Mail as “Alarm bells for Ken Paxton after leaked audio scandal as poll shows Democrat James Talarico in the lead”.