America Will Have Less Influence in the Middle East. Is That So Bad?

The authors argue that when the Iran war ends, the United States should reshape and reduce its military presence in the Middle East rather than rebuild its existing network of major bases. Although this would mean less American influence and could frustrate partners, they say it would help Washington focus on core interests, avoid being drawn into unpopular regional wars and give Arab states more scope to develop their own security capabilities.

The article says attacks since the United States and Israel began striking Iran in February have damaged nearly all US bases and installations in the region. Iranian missiles and drones have damaged at least 81 aircraft; at least 21 US service members have been killed and almost 900 wounded, alongside thousands of Iranian deaths and casualties across the region. The authors propose a smaller, conditional and more distributed presence, supported by access agreements and outposts farther from Iran, rather than an expensive reconstruction of vulnerable bases.