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Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use
Global fossil fuel and cement emissions are projected to dip by about 0.4% in 2026, as the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz reduce oil use. The fall is tentative and does not mean global emissions are on a sustained downward path.
The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil fuel and cement emissions at 38.2bn tonnes of CO2, with a range from a 1.5% fall to a 0.6% rise. A projected increase in emissions from land-use change, linked partly to peat fires and forest degradation in south-east Asia, would lift total emissions to a record 43.3bn tonnes, from 42.8bn in 2025. Solar, wind and electric vehicles offset around two-thirds of emissions that would otherwise result from rising energy demand, but the report says this is not yet enough to drive a sustained decline.
In short
- Fossil fuel and cement emissions may fall 0.4% in 2026.
- Lower oil use is linked to the Iran conflict and Hormuz closure.
- Rising land-use emissions could push total CO2 to a record 43.3bn tonnes.
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The case for
A temporary fall in fossil fuel use could show that emissions respond quickly when oil demand is disrupted, while the growth of solar, wind and electric vehicles is already preventing a substantial share of additional emissions. Supporters of treating the projection as cautiously encouraging may argue it highlights how clean-energy investment can help make future, sustained reductions achievable.
The case against
The projected dip is uncertain, with estimates ranging from a decline to a rise, and is linked largely to conflict and disrupted oil supply rather than a durable shift away from fossil fuels. Those urging caution may stress that land-use emissions could still push total emissions to a record, and that clean energy has not yet reduced global emissions on a sustained basis.
Explained simply
Fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas release carbon dioxide when burned. Cement-making also produces the gas. These emissions add to the greenhouse gases warming the planet, while changes to forests and other land can release or absorb carbon too.
The Global Carbon Project tracks these sources worldwide. Its estimates distinguish emissions from fossil fuels and cement from those linked to land use, such as deforestation and peat fires. The figures are projections and carry uncertainty.
Solar and wind power and electric vehicles can reduce reliance on fossil fuels, even as demand for energy grows. Whether emissions fall over time depends on how these changes compare with continued use of coal, oil and gas, as well as what happens to forests and other land.
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