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Analysis:AI shopping agents could threaten Amazon and Walmart’s ad business
AI shopping agents could weaken the advertising businesses of Amazon and Walmart by directing customers to products without relying on the retailers’ sponsored listings. The two companies are taking different approaches: Amazon has restricted some outside agents, while Walmart is building a system to let them shop through its platform.
Amazon and Walmart together account for an estimated 88 per cent of the US retail media market, worth $74.4 billion. Morgan Stanley researchers estimate AI agents could handle 10 to 20 per cent of US e-commerce spending by 2030; meanwhile, Amazon’s advertising revenue grew 11 per cent in the third quarter, its slowest rate in nearly four years. Retail media spending is forecast to rise 22.6 per cent in 2026, and both retailers are testing advertising in their own AI shopping tools.
In short
- AI shopping agents may divert shoppers from sponsored retail listings.
- Amazon has blocked some outside agents; Walmart is enabling them.
- Retail media spending is still forecast to grow in 2026.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
AI shopping agents could help customers find products based on their needs and compare options across retailers, rather than being steered by paid placements. If agents reduce retailers’ control over product discovery, they could weaken a lucrative advertising model and put pressure on companies to show that recommendations serve shoppers as well as advertisers. From this perspective, Walmart’s openness to outside agents may encourage competition and give customers more choice.
The case against
Retailers can argue that sponsored listings fund useful services, help shoppers discover relevant products and support competition among sellers. If outside agents divert purchases while bypassing retailer platforms, Amazon and Walmart could lose advertising income that helps pay for those services, while having less control over product information and the shopping experience. Their different strategies can be seen as attempts to adapt: Amazon protects its platform, while Walmart seeks to participate in agent-led shopping on its own terms.
Explained simply
Amazon and Walmart sell goods online and earn money from adverts shown to shoppers on their websites and apps. These adverts, often paid for by brands, can appear prominently in product searches and recommendations; this business is known as retail media.
AI shopping agents are tools that can search for products and help people choose or buy them. If shoppers use an agent that recommends products directly, they may see fewer retailer adverts, which could affect how much brands pay to advertise. Amazon and Walmart are major players in this market, so changes to how people shop online could matter to retailers, brands and customers.