The UK's National Audit Office (NAO) has urged civil service leaders to properly assess how artificial intelligence will affect the size, shape and skills of the public sector workforce before assuming it will deliver the government's projected £45 billion in annual savings. The watchdog says departments have yet to show how AI-driven efficiencies would translate into changes in staff numbers, roles, grades and required capabilities, warning that without this planning the government risks overestimating or unevenly calculating the benefits of digital transformation.

The NAO's report notes that expected productivity gains, such as digital self-service for tax and benefits, and automated checks on planning applications, could reduce staffing needs in some areas, but the public sector currently lacks the digital skills required to realise them. The £45 billion efficiency figure has already drawn scepticism, with the Institute for Government calling it a "huge amount" given most spending goes on salaries and infrastructure, and Parliament's Science, Innovation and Technology Committee branding it "worryingly optimistic" hype. The report also cites Cabinet Secretary Dame Antonia Romeo's own admission that workforce plans do not adequately reflect coming AI-driven change, and flags potential ethical concerns that could limit AI deployment in some areas.