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Bombshell new memo reveals supercharged El Niño set to smash California: ‘Not normal’
NOAA says an unusually intense El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific and could bring significant weather effects to California later this year and into 2027. The forecast matters because strong El Niño events can raise the risk of storms and heavy rain in Southern California, though NOAA cautions that extreme impacts are not certain everywhere.
There is a 60% chance it will become the strongest El Niño recorded since 1950, and NOAA puts the chance of strong to very strong conditions lasting from January to March 2027 above 79%. Temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific are more than 4°C above normal, with unusually warm water spreading west; forecasters expect the pattern to weaken gradually in early 2027. The article also cites 21 named Eastern Pacific systems and 32 Western Pacific typhoons this year, and a study estimating 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide compared with a typical year.
In short
- NOAA sees a 60% chance of a record-strength El Niño.
- Strong conditions may persist into early 2027.
- California could face heavier rain, but impacts remain uncertain.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A very strong El Niño could increase the likelihood of substantial rain and storms in Southern California, so treating the forecast as a serious warning may help communities prepare for flooding and other disruption. The unusually warm Pacific waters and NOAA’s high probabilities for strong conditions support close attention, even though the precise effects remain uncertain.
The case against
The forecast describes elevated risks, not a certainty that California will be “smashed”; impacts can vary by region, and NOAA says extreme effects are not assured everywhere. Avoiding alarmist language and waiting for more local, updated forecasts may help the public distinguish a significant climate pattern from a guaranteed disaster.