Boost for Burnham as surge in voters who think Labour will win next election, new poll shows
The share of voters who expect Labour to win the next general election has nearly doubled in a year, according to a More in Common poll. The findings offer a boost to Andy Burnham, whom the article says has improved perceptions of the party since becoming prime minister, while raising questions about whether that confidence will last.
The survey found 42 per cent think Labour will win, compared with 23 per cent last summer; the share expecting it to lose fell from 58 to 33 per cent. Among Reform voters, 26 per cent now expect a Labour victory, up from 11 per cent, while 72 per cent of Labour’s 2024 voters do. The poll also found that 45 per cent believe Burnham’s proposal to rejoin the EU reflects well on him; More in Common questioned 3,286 adults from 23 to 26 October.
In short
- 42 per cent expect Labour to win the next election.
- That is up from 23 per cent last summer.
- More in Common surveyed 3,286 adults in October.
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The case for
Rising expectations that Labour can win may indicate that voters see the party as more credible and capable of governing, giving it a stronger basis to build support across party lines. Supporters could argue that Burnham’s more favourable public image and willingness to make a clear case on Europe are helping voters engage with Labour’s direction.
The case against
Expectations of victory are not the same as support, and a poll at one point in time cannot establish that Labour’s improved standing will last or translate into votes. Critics could argue that confidence may reflect a temporary shift in perceptions, while Burnham’s EU proposal could divide voters and distract from other concerns.
Explained simply
A general election is the vote in which people across the UK choose MPs, and the party able to command a majority in the House of Commons usually forms the government. Labour won the 2024 election and is led by Andy Burnham, who is prime minister in this account; the next election will decide whether Labour stays in office.
More in Common is a polling organisation that surveys people’s views. Polls can offer a snapshot of expectations, but they cannot establish who will win an election, which may be years away. The UK’s relationship with the European Union is also a live political question: the country left the EU in 2020, and proposals to rejoin would involve major policy and negotiation decisions.