Labour has reclaimed the top position in national polling following Andy Burnham's elevation to prime minister, reversing Reform UK's remarkable dominance that had spanned more than 300 consecutive surveys since spring 2025. Recent surveys show Labour at 26–28 per cent against Reform's 22–24 per cent, a shift attributed to both Burnham's political appeal and communication strategy and to the absence of his predecessor Keir Starmer. Political analysts note the turnaround has occurred faster than anticipated, with Burnham actively pushing Labour's message through announcements and social media whilst his party regains the political initiative.

Thursday's Manchester mayoral by-election—triggered by Burnham's departure from that post to return to Parliament—will provide the first electoral test of the new political landscape. Polling data forecasts a commanding Labour victory in the contest, with candidate Bev Craig projected to secure roughly 39 per cent of the vote against Reform's 19 per cent, with the Greens and Conservatives trailing. Meanwhile, Reform faces concurrent difficulties including investigations into its leader Nigel Farage's financial arrangements and his own uncontested by-election in Clacton, whilst the Conservative Party has begun narrowing the gap with Reform for second place.