Andy Burnham faces his first major electoral test as prime minister when Greater Manchester voters choose his successor as mayor, a role he held from 2017 until returning to Parliament in June. The contest matters because it will test Labour’s strength in a region closely associated with Burnham’s popularity, while exposing differences between prosperous central Manchester and more socially conservative, post-industrial outer boroughs.

Burnham won 63 per cent in 2017 and was re-elected overwhelmingly in 2021 and 2024, gaining prominence during Covid through his opposition to the government’s handling of regional restrictions. Greater Manchester’s economy has grown by 3.1 per cent annually over the past decade, though much of that growth has been concentrated in the city; turnout was only 32 per cent in 2024. Labour remains dominant across most councils, but Reform made substantial gains in recent local elections and the Greens also advanced in Manchester, amid Labour’s wider loss of 1,500 English council seats and control of 30 authorities.