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California’s blue wave election wash-out leaves a pleasant surprise for Republicans
California Republicans suffered heavy losses in statewide and legislative races as Democrats made early gains, while Xavier Becerra defeated Steve Hilton for governor by a wide margin. The opinion article argues that the result is not the whole story: close contests may shift as more ballots are counted, and the author sees California’s extended counting process as a problem for public confidence.
Early returns showed Proposition 40, a proposed billionaire tax, losing by double digits, while Proposition 3, extending higher income tax rates, was passing; voter ID measure Proposition 39 and tax measure Proposition 43 were trailing. The article says Republicans often lead in early results because they tend to return mail ballots sooner, and cites 2018 congressional races and a Los Angeles mayoral primary as examples of leads later overturned. California accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day for up to seven days, alongside signature checks and provisional ballots.
In short
- Becerra won the governor’s race by a wide margin.
- Several ballot measures had clear early leads or deficits.
- Later-counted ballots could reshape close contests.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The early results suggest Republicans may still improve their position as later-arriving ballots are counted, particularly in close races, so the initial picture may overstate Democratic gains. Allowing time to verify signatures and count eligible ballots can protect voters’ access and ensure every valid vote is included, even if it delays final results.
The case against
The wide margins in the governor’s race and Democrats’ early gains make a Republican recovery uncertain, and past examples of shifting counts do not establish that these contests will follow the same pattern. A long counting period can leave outcomes unclear and weaken confidence, so election officials should make the process and likely timetable as transparent as possible.