Can I trust the polls? And other questions from listeners about the 2026 midterms

Ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections, listeners asked NPR’s political correspondents whether polls can be trusted, which contests deserve attention and what a change in control of Congress might mean. The correspondents said national polls have generally been more reliable than some state surveys, but warned against treating a narrow lead as a precise prediction. They urged readers to check a pollster’s quality and margin of error, and to look for sustained changes in public opinion rather than focus on a single result.

The discussion also covered debates, local races and the 2028 presidential election. The correspondents argued that debates can help voters assess candidates’ policies, even when incumbents are reluctant to take part. They said a Democratic majority in either chamber of Congress would be likely to increase scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s administration, while legislation would depend more heavily on compromise. They cautioned that midterm results cannot reliably predict how states will vote in 2028, when turnout and the electorate will differ.