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Catalog Multiples Expected to Hold Flat, More Latin & Country Deals in 2026: Duetti & Billboard’s Music Finance Index
Catalog acquisition multiples are expected to stay largely flat for the rest of 2026, even as investor interest grows in Latin, country and younger catalogues, according to Duetti and Billboard's Music Finance Index published on 21 July. The survey polled roughly 70 lawyers, managers, artists and industry professionals about their expectations for catalogue valuations and deal activity over the next six months, revealing a "more balanced" market in which sellers are willing to transact but buyers remain discerning.
Publishing rights for the youngest catalogues (six months to two years old) are expected to fetch four-to-6.5 times trailing 12-month net revenue, while catalogues over a decade old could command 12.1 to 14.6 times, with publishing consistently valued above masters across all age bands. Latin catalogues are forecast to see the strongest investor demand, with 75% of respondents expecting deal volume to rise, up from 67% six months earlier, while country music recorded the sharpest jump in optimism, from 48% to 60%. These trends echo Luminate data showing Spanish-language songs now account for nearly one in ten US streams, and this is the first edition of the index to gauge how "super new" music, released within the last six months, is being valued.
In short
- Catalog acquisition multiples expected to remain flat through 2026
- Latin and country catalogues forecast to see rising investor demand
- Older catalogues fetch far higher multiples than newer ones
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The market is achieving healthy equilibrium and maturation. Stable multiples indicate sustainable valuations and strong fundamentals rather than weakness, whilst selective buyers ensure disciplined capital deployment. Growing investor interest in Latin and country catalogues reflects intelligent reallocation toward authentic growth trends—Spanish-language music now comprises nearly one-tenth of US streams—and represents valuable diversification beyond traditional catalogues, creating meaningful opportunities for underrepresented artists and genres.
The case against
Flat multiples may mask market bifurcation and broader cooling. Concentrated investor interest in specific segments suggests potential capital flight from other genres and declining confidence in the wider market beyond "hot" categories. Moreover, the growing premium on very young catalogues with minimal income history represents a departure from catalog investment's foundational appeal and introduces elevated valuation risk compared to the stability that originally attracted institutional investors.
Explained simply
A music catalogue is a collection of songs and the rights to the income they generate. When songs are streamed, played on radio or used in films and advertising, the owner receives payments. Because successful songs continue earning money for decades, music catalogues have become attractive investments for large financial firms and other buyers seeking stable, long-term returns.
The market for music catalogues involves artists and songwriters selling their collections to investors, with prices determined by forecasts of future revenue. Lawyers, managers, artists and music industry professionals regularly track market conditions to gauge what catalogues are worth. Understanding whether prices are rising or falling helps both sellers and buyers make decisions about when to transact.
Changes in the catalogue market reflect shifting patterns in how people consume music. When investor interest shifts towards particular genres or regions, it can influence which artists and songwriters find backing for their work and how the music industry allocates resources globally.
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