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CBB With Danny Z: Kansas, Tennessee and USC lead another human polls vs. analytics argument
The article compares college basketball’s preseason human polls with two computer ranking systems, KenPom and TeamRankings, to see where voters and models disagree. It highlights Kansas and Iowa State as teams rated notably higher by the computers, while Tennessee and USC are flagged in the headline as receiving more support from human voters.
The comparison uses the AP and Coaches polls and analytics ratings from 1 November, before the season began. Florida and Duke lead the human polls in that order, while the models reverse them; Illinois ranks near the top across all four lists. KenPom places Kansas fifth and Iowa State sixth, versus lower positions in both polls, citing Iowa State’s projected second-best defence. The supplied article text ends as it begins discussing Tennessee and USC, so it does not include their ranking details.
In short
- Computer models rate Kansas and Iowa State above their human poll positions.
- Florida, Duke and Illinois are near the top across the rankings.
- The article excerpt cuts off before giving Tennessee and USC’s details.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Human polls reflect informed judgement about team quality, experience, coaching and likely performance—factors that may not be fully captured by models, especially before a season starts. Their broad agreement with the analytics on teams such as Illinois also suggests voters can provide a useful consensus grounded in basketball knowledge.
The case against
Computer ratings apply consistent methods across teams and can weigh measurable factors, such as projected defensive strength, that voters may overlook or assess unevenly. Their higher placements for Kansas and Iowa State could therefore reflect evidence-based expectations that the polls understate, though early-season projections remain uncertain.
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