Nigel Farage’s sharply worsening approval rating is presented as a serious threat to Reform UK because the party depends heavily on his personal appeal and leadership. The article argues that Reform’s ambition to move from protest movement to a party capable of forming a government has exposed weaknesses in its organisation, policies and candidate selection.

More in Common reportedly put Farage’s net approval rating at -32, a fall of 10 points in two weeks since early July. Reform had led polls for 15 months, but Labour regained the lead after Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer, while Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have also improved; party insiders say Farage appears tired and frustrated, although allies argue a downturn was inevitable.