Commonwealth Bank and ANZ now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points in November, to 4.60 per cent, reversing earlier expectations of eventual rate cuts. If realised, the increase would take rates to their highest level since October 2011 and add further strain to households already facing higher mortgage payments and living costs.

The forecasts followed July inflation data showing headline inflation falling from 3.8 to 3.5 per cent, while underlying trimmed-mean inflation remained at 3.6 per cent. Canstar estimates the proposed rise would add about $91 a month to a $600,000 mortgage with 25 years remaining, or $152 for a $1 million loan; borrowers facing three rises this year would be paying roughly $363 more each month than at the start of 2026. NAB is reviewing its outlook, while RBA meeting minutes and economists cited in the article indicate concern that persistent core inflation could require tighter policy.