Could China and Russia really destroy Starlink? Only with a boomerang.
An investigation by The Insider, Der Spiegel and Le Monde has revealed documents suggesting China and Russia are cooperating far more closely than previously acknowledged on military technology, including strategies aimed at countering SpaceX's Starlink satellite broadband network. Ars Technica examined the claims with former US defence officials and space security experts to gauge how credible the reported threat actually is, given Starlink's importance to Ukraine's war effort and to US military operations more broadly.
The leaked material reportedly includes slideshows from a previously undisclosed China-Russia Military-Technical Cooperation Forum held in 2023, with further meetings continuing since, including a sixth planned for late 2026 in St Petersburg. Topics covered air and missile defence systems, autonomous swarm munitions, armoured vehicles and military aviation. Starlink currently comprises more than 10,000 satellites, a scale neither China nor Russia can yet match, though China's recent recovery of a reusable rocket booster could accelerate its own mega-constellation ambitions.
In short
- Leaked documents reveal deeper China-Russia military cooperation, including anti-Starlink plans.
- Starlink remains vital to Ukraine and US military operations.
- China's reusable rocket progress may narrow the satellite gap with SpaceX.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The documented cooperation between China and Russia on military technology, including explicit strategies targeting Starlink, reflects genuine and coordinated intent that merits serious attention. Given Starlink's critical role in Ukrainian defence and US military operations, and the rapidly advancing space capabilities of both nations, treating this threat as credible incentivises appropriate defensive measures and strategic planning.
The case against
Whilst Chinese and Russian intent may be genuine, the actual capability gap remains substantial—destroying or significantly degrading a constellation of over 10,000 satellites operating in different orbital altitudes presents technical and economic challenges neither nation has yet demonstrated the ability to overcome, and any attempted attack would trigger catastrophic space debris whilst prompting immediate defensive countermeasures.
Explained simply
Starlink is SpaceX's satellite broadband network, made up of more than 10,000 satellites in orbit that provide internet coverage worldwide. Ukraine has become dependent on Starlink for communications during its war with Russia, and the US military also relies on the system, making it strategically significant.
Starlink's importance to Ukraine and the US military has made space-based communications systems a focus of military interest for China and Russia. Both nations invest in their own space capabilities and have studied ways such systems might be countered or disrupted.
Starlink's massive scale presents a formidable technical challenge to any potential adversary. Neither China nor Russia has deployed a satellite network approaching Starlink's size, and destroying or disabling thousands of satellites in orbit would require capabilities neither country has demonstrated. China has recently made progress in recovering and reusing rocket boosters, which could eventually accelerate its satellite launches, but experts remain sceptical about how realistic an actual threat to Starlink would be.
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