Oil exports through Hormuz recover to pre-war levels as supply routes shift

Crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to pre-war levels as producers and shipping companies have developed alternative routes, including pipeline transport and ship-to-ship transfers. At least 16.5 million barrels per day left the region in September—matching pre-war averages—compared with just 10.5 million bpd in March during the conflict's opening weeks. About 40 per cent of crude now bypasses the strait entirely through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, up from just 17 per cent before the war.

However, refined products such as diesel remain severely constrained, with only 677,000 bpd being transported compared to 3.6 million bpd pre-conflict. This has pushed UK diesel prices to an all-time high of 199.18p per litre, affecting businesses and households. Despite market resilience, shipping remains at risk, with three tankers hit by projectiles on Tuesday, and analysts warn that higher operational costs mask underlying security vulnerabilities.