United’s eight-match winless run exposes a reliance on luck under Carrick
Manchester United have been third in the Premier League by points during Michael Carrick’s time as head coach, but their recent collapse has put his job in danger. The article argues that last season’s strong finish depended heavily on favourable results and that underlying weaknesses, as well as a downturn in luck, help explain the current slump.
United have gone eight games in all competitions without a win and sit 16th, despite an expected league position of 10th. They earned 12.7 more points than expected during Carrick’s 17-match interim spell last season, while this season they are 3.8 points below expectation. Their narrow wins often came despite limited chances, and this season they have struggled to score while dominating possession; they also rank among the league’s lowest for expected goals per shot and distance covered.
In short
- United’s recent poor run has put Carrick’s position at risk.
- Last season’s results exceeded expected points by 12.7.
- Possession and shot volume have not translated into goals.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
The run of results and underlying measures suggest United’s earlier success under Carrick was fragile: they collected far more points than expected, often winning close games despite creating few chances. Their current struggles to turn possession into goals, combined with low expected goals per shot and distance covered, support the view that weaknesses in chance creation and work rate have become harder to mask.
The case against
Expected-goals and related measures are useful signals, but they cannot fully capture finishing, tactical choices, player availability or the quality of individual performances. Carrick’s record of keeping United third by points during his spell still counts for something, and an eight-game winless run may be a temporary downturn rather than proof that the earlier results were mainly luck or that his approach is unsustainable.
Entertainment Football Geopolitics Politics Sport TV
Read the full article at the source →
Originally published by The Guardian as “Damning data: stats that show Michael Carrick’s luck was bound to run out | Andrew Beasley”.