Daily Mail columnist Dan Hodges argues that despite Reform UK's dramatic rise in the polls, the party has squandered its chance to become a credible alternative government, meaning the next general election will still be a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives. He criticises Reform's newly unveiled "Operation Fortress" plan to tackle small boat crossings, dismissing its 28 pages as unworkable fantasy, including a proposal to return migrants to France or Belgium even without those countries' consent.

Hodges notes that Reform's support peaked last October at 31 per cent, well ahead of Labour on 20 per cent and the Conservatives a further three points behind, but says the party has since faltered on policy substance. He cites Nigel Farage's reversal on the two-child benefit cap, having initially opposed it before admitting he had "lost the argument", as evidence the party lacks serious governing plans. Hodges credits Farage with reshaping British politics and voicing working-class frustration, but concludes that Labour under Andy Burnham and the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch will remain the real contenders at the ballot box.