Dem pollster dishes on which California election day races will be called early — and which may take days

A Democratic pollster predicts California’s governor’s race will be called quickly, while several close contests may take days to resolve as later ballots are counted. The timing matters because election-night leads may shift, particularly in races between Democrats and in contests where late-counted ballots could favour one side.

Paul Mitchell expects Democrat Xavier Becerra to defeat Republican Steve Hilton decisively, in line with the partisan pattern he sees in last year’s Proposition 50 vote. He says the San Francisco congressional race could remain unresolved until Friday; Jimmy Gomez may need a four-point lead in Los Angeles and Doris Matsui a six-point lead in Sacramento to hold on. Mitchell estimates Karen Bass may need an eight-point early lead against Nithya Raman, while opponents of the proposed billionaire tax may need to lead 53% to 47% on election night because later returns could favour the measure.