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Kalshi gives Democrats record chances of winning both houses of Congress
Prediction market Kalshi put Democrats’ chances of winning control of both chambers of Congress at record highs, one day before the US midterm elections. The figures suggest a possible shift in power, while President Donald Trump made a final appeal to voters to preserve Republican majorities.
As of Monday morning, Kalshi gave Democrats a 74 per cent chance of winning the Senate and a 94 per cent chance of taking the House. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats to Democrats’ 47, with control expected to depend on several close races. The article also points to voter frustration over the economy and cost of living, and cites a poll showing Democrat Abdul El Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan by 53 to 42 per cent.
In short
- Kalshi puts Democrats’ Senate chances at 74 per cent.
- Democrats have a 94 per cent chance of taking the House.
- Trump made a final push to protect Republican majorities.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A Democratic takeover could give voters’ concerns about the economy and cost of living greater influence in Congress, and close races and polling suggest the party may be well placed to win. Divided control can also strengthen legislative scrutiny and give a new majority a mandate to pursue different priorities.
The case against
Prediction market odds are estimates, not election results, and close contests can turn on turnout, polling error and local factors. Republicans can argue that retaining both chambers would preserve continuity and give the president’s party a better chance to advance its agenda, while voters weigh the administration’s record against the alternatives.
Explained simply
Congress is the US legislature, made up of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Both chambers help pass federal laws and approve public spending, while the Senate also confirms many presidential appointments.
Each chamber is controlled by the party with the most seats. Republicans currently hold both, so a change in either chamber would affect how easily President Donald Trump could advance his policies and how closely Congress scrutinises his administration.
Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters choose all House members and about a third of senators, with control often decided by a small number of closely contested races.
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Originally published by Daily Mail as “Democrat odds of ‘blue tsunami’ soar to a record high in latest prediction as Trump makes last-minute scramble: Live updates”.