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Did blue California exiles swing the Texas race?
Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’s US Senate race, ending a 30-year Republican hold on statewide office and a 38-year gap since Texas last elected a Democratic senator. Democrat Gina Hinojosa also won the governorship, prompting questions about whether newcomers from California helped shift the state’s politics.
Unofficial results gave Talarico about 5.45 million votes, or 55%, to Paxton’s 4.25 million, or 43%. Census figures show 77,161 people moved from California to Texas in 2024, while an analysis estimated about one million made the move between 2015 and 2025; a small survey of 53 California transplants found most identified as Democrats. Interviewees cited housing costs, jobs and education, while one argued that long-time Texans also shaped the result.
In short
- Talarico won Texas’s Senate race by about 1.2 million votes.
- Democrats also captured the governor’s race.
- California newcomers may have contributed, but were not the only factor.