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Donald Trump Jr. exits advisory role at Kalshi prediction market
Kalshi has ended Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory contract after his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, took a major stake in rival prediction market Polymarket. The departure removes a potential conflict of interest as Trump Jr. remains an adviser to Polymarket, and comes as prediction markets may face greater scrutiny from lawmakers.
Kalshi said the decision was mutual and that discussions began in August, after 1789 Capital announced its Polymarket investment. CEO Tarek Mansour previously described Trump Jr.’s connection to Kalshi as an “optics issue”, while saying it had not been used to seek favour with the US government. A former CFTC trial attorney said Trump Jr.’s industry ties could make prediction markets a target for lawmakers; the article reports Democrats had secured majorities in both chambers of Congress.
In short
- Kalshi ended Trump Jr.’s advisory role.
- His firm invested in rival Polymarket.
- He remains an adviser to Polymarket.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Ending the advisory contract is a sensible way to address a perceived conflict: Trump Jr.’s firm has invested in Kalshi’s rival, and he remains an adviser to that rival. Even without evidence of improper influence, separating the roles can protect confidence in Kalshi’s independence as prediction markets face closer scrutiny.
The case against
If the contract ended by mutual agreement after discussions began in August, the departure need not imply wrongdoing or an actual conflict affecting Kalshi’s decisions. Advisory ties can provide useful expertise, and treating an “optics issue” as sufficient reason to sever them could encourage political pressure or appearances to outweigh evidence of conduct.