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Donald Trump’s power is on the wane. What next for Russia, Israel – and the rest of us? | Simon Tisdall
The article argues that Donald Trump’s midterm election defeat has weakened his influence at home and abroad, bringing relief and renewed hopes to people in countries affected by his policies. It says the result could give Congress and US allies more scope to resist his approach, but warns that his frustration as a lame-duck president may intensify international crises.
The piece says Iranians may hope the US war against Tehran will end, while Ukrainians hope a Democratic-controlled Congress will limit Trump’s support for Russia. But Trump could still resume or expand military action against Iran, and his pursuit of a deal with Vladimir Putin could pressure Ukraine to accept territorial concessions. The article also notes Trump’s interest in a legacy deal with Russia and a Nobel Peace Prize, while arguing that Ukraine’s welfare is not his main motivation.
In short
- Midterm losses have weakened Trump’s position internationally.
- His response could still worsen tensions with Iran.
- A Russia deal may put pressure on Ukraine.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
A weakened Trump may have less freedom to pursue policies that unsettle allies and adversaries, as Congress and US partners gain more room to challenge his decisions. That could reassure Ukrainians and Iranians who fear his approach, and make it harder to pressure Ukraine into concessions for a US-Russia deal.
The case against
A midterm defeat does not remove Trump’s powers as president, and political setbacks could make him more inclined to seek dramatic action or a legacy-making agreement. Efforts to restrain him might also complicate diplomacy or intensify crises, while a deal pursued for political or personal reasons could leave Ukraine exposed to pressure.
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