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Don’t blame the blue wave on racial demographics
After Texas appeared to turn Democratic in the midterm elections, conservative influencer Benny Johnson attributed the result to the state’s changing racial demographics, writing that “demographics is destiny”. The article criticises this explanation as scapegoating, arguing that it avoids examining the political choices and miscalculations behind the Republican losses.
Johnson cited a fall in Texas’s White population share, from 89% in 1970 to under 39% today, but the article says his comparison omits important context: older figures counted Hispanic residents as White, and Texas elected Democrats in the 1970s. The excerpt provides no detailed election results or further analysis of the wider “blue wave”.
In short
- Benny Johnson linked Texas’s Democratic shift to changing demographics.
- The article says his comparison overlooks how older data classified Hispanic residents.
- It argues Republicans should examine their political miscalculations.
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Demographic change can reshape the electorate over time, so it is reasonable to ask whether Texas’s changing population contributed to shifts in voting patterns. The figures Johnson cited may point to a relevant long-term trend, even if they do not by themselves establish what caused a particular election result.
The case against
Explaining Republican losses mainly through racial demographics risks treating voters as a bloc and evading scrutiny of candidates, policies and campaign decisions. The comparison cited is also limited: older figures classified many Hispanic residents as White, and Texas elected Democrats in the 1970s, so population shares alone cannot explain the result.