Don’t do it, Andy! Polling guru warns Burnham that Holborn result shows he would fail to win snap election
Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election with a 3,000-vote majority, but polling expert Sir John Curtice cautioned against treating the result as evidence that Labour could win a general election. He said the Greens had weakened since their local election gains in the spring, while remaining a more significant force than before.
Abdi-Wali received 45 per cent of the vote, four points below Keir Starmer’s share in 2024. Curtice described an early general election as extremely risky for Labour, although recent polls showed its support rising to 30 per cent in Opinium and 27 per cent in YouGov; YouGov put Reform five points behind and the Conservatives on 20 per cent. Andy Burnham has dismissed snap-election speculation, despite recently setting out policies intended for after an election.
- Labour won Holborn and St Pancras by 3,000 votes.
- Curtice said the result does not show Labour can win a majority.
- Recent polls put Labour on 27 to 30 per cent.
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A by-election is held when a Parliament seat becomes vacant. Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali won the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, but this has prompted speculation about a possible snap general election. Andy Burnham, a senior Labour politician, has been at the centre of this discussion.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice has cautioned that the by-election result should not encourage confidence about early election prospects. Abdi-Wali received 45 per cent of the vote, but this was four points lower than Keir Starmer achieved in the same constituency in 2024. Curtice noted that the Greens have weakened since earlier in the year but remain a more significant force than before.
National opinion polls show Labour on 27 to 30 per cent, with the Conservatives on 20 per cent and Reform a few points behind. These figures suggest the national position is less favourable than a single by-election victory might indicate. Curtice has described an early election as extremely risky for Labour.
Both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Labour's by-election victory demonstrates their ability to win in contested constituencies, and current polling showing them at 27-30 per cent puts them ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives. Calling an election while popular can capitalise on momentum before circumstances change or opposition parties consolidate support. The Holborn result provides tangible evidence of electoral appeal across different communities.
The case against
By-election results are structurally poor predictors of general election outcomes because voters behave differently in high-stakes contests, tactical voting patterns shift, and turnout is not comparable. The Labour candidate's 45 per cent share underperformed Starmer's 2024 general election result by four points, suggesting potential weakness in broader electoral conditions. Current polling of 27-30 per cent is respectable but not commanding, and governing parties typically face greater risk from snap elections when their position could strengthen through demonstrable record in office.