Election nostradamus Nate Silver makes extreme prediction about Democrats’ chance to cinch power in the midterms

Nate Silver’s latest election model gives Democrats a 94 per cent chance of winning the House and a 75 per cent chance of taking the Senate in the US midterms. The forecast suggests Republicans face a difficult fight to retain control of Congress, but the probabilities are estimates rather than guarantees.

Since early September, the model’s estimated chance of a Democratic House victory has risen from 81 per cent, while its Senate estimate has increased from 50 per cent. Polls cited in the article show Democrats leading in several competitive races and in national congressional ballots; Republicans currently hold a 53–47 Senate majority, and Democrats need four seats to gain control. Silver cautions that polling error could change the outlook, particularly in close Senate contests.