A commentary arguing that Europe's most pressing external challenges over the next 12 months will come from Russia and China rather than the United States. Whilst the transatlantic relationship remains difficult under Trump—marked by weakened Nato confidence, trade tensions, and uncertainty over Ukraine support—these disputes are relatively bounded and negotiable compared to the structural risks posed by Moscow and Beijing. The author, addressing over 100 European ambassadors, contends this is counterintuitive but critical for European strategic planning.

Russia presents an escalating threat because its economic weakness, not strength, makes it more dangerous. The Kremlin is struggling to finance its Ukraine war sustainably, with military spending consuming resources from public services and the broader economy approaching recession. Rather than encouraging compromise, Russia's deteriorating economic position creates an incentive to improve its military standing now, likely triggering heavier attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, accelerated mobilisation efforts, and intensified hybrid warfare against Nato countries. China presents a different but equally serious challenge, with European consensus now established that China's subsidies, industrial overcapacity, currency manipulation and export model constitute unfair competition requiring a coordinated political response, shifting the debate from whether to defend itself to how aggressively.