Europe is losing battle to stop Putin’s ‘hybrid’ war, intelligence officials warn as Germany opens sabotage probe after another substation fire
Western intelligence officials have warned that Europe is failing to counter Vladimir Putin's escalating "hybrid" war, as Germany opened a sabotage investigation after a fire damaged an electricity substation in Berlin. Defence sources quoted by the Financial Times said current measures deter conventional and nuclear threats but are inadequate against sub-Article 5 provocations, urging a fundamental rethink of Europe's approach. The warning comes amid a broader pattern of suspected sabotage, drone incursions and attacks on infrastructure across Germany, which Nato officials say Russia is deliberately calibrating to stay below the threshold that would trigger Nato's mutual defence clause.
The Berlin fire, in the Moabit district, damaged a construction site and part of a substation but caused no supply disruption; police are working with the grid operator to establish whether it was arson or a technical fault. Separately, authorities are hunting a 48-year-old suspected climate activist over a spate of substation attacks last week in North Rhine-Westphalia and Brandenburg targeting coal-fired power supplies. Germany has also formally blamed Russia for an explosive-laden drone found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport in August, prompting Chancellor Friedrich Merz to say the country was increasingly "in the crosshairs of hybrid attackers". Officials also cited a fresh wave of Russian-linked sabotage against European defence manufacturers using local criminals, with one MP warning of possible future attacks on arms industry figures.
In short
- Intelligence officials say Europe isn't deterring Russia's hybrid warfare campaign
- Berlin substation fire probed as possible sabotage; cause unconfirmed
- Germany blames Russia for explosive drone found near Leipzig airport
Steelman: both sides, in good faith
The strongest fair case each way — we don't pick a winner.
The case for
Europe should treat repeated sabotage, drone incursions and attacks on infrastructure as a serious security threat, even when each incident stays below Nato’s collective-defence threshold. Supporters of a fundamental rethink argue that current deterrence leaves room for calibrated attacks, and that stronger coordination, protection of critical infrastructure and credible responses could reduce the risk of escalation and reassure the public.
The case against
A major shift in Europe’s security posture could risk escalating tensions when the evidence and responsibility for individual incidents are still being established. A cautious approach gives investigators time to distinguish sabotage from accidents or unrelated crimes, while targeted policing, intelligence-sharing and infrastructure protection may address the threat without treating every suspected provocation as grounds for broader confrontation.
Explained simply
“Hybrid” warfare refers to hostile activity that falls short of open military conflict, such as sabotage, cyber attacks and unexplained drone flights. Governments say such actions can disrupt daily life and create uncertainty while making it harder to identify who is responsible.
Vladimir Putin is Russia’s president, and Nato is the military alliance that includes Germany and many other European countries. Nato’s mutual defence clause commits members to treat an armed attack on one member as an attack on all, but incidents below that level can be harder to deter or respond to collectively.
Electricity substations help route power to homes and businesses, so attacks on them can threaten essential services. Germany has reported several suspected incidents involving infrastructure and defence-related sites, although the cause and responsibility in individual cases may still be under investigation.
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